BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Ernesto Advisory Number 5
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052024
500 PM AST Mon Aug 12 2024
...DISTURBANCE BECOMES TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO...
...EXPECTED TO BRING TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS AND HEAVY RAINS TO
PORTIONS OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS BEGINNING LATE TONIGHT...
SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
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LOCATION...16.0N 57.5W
ABOUT 295 MI...475 KM ESE OF ANTIGUA
ABOUT 590 MI...950 KM ESE OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 28 MPH...44 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1009 MB...29.80 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
None
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* St. Kitts, Nevis, Montserrat, Antigua, Barbuda, and Anguilla
* Guadeloupe
* St. Martin and St. Barthelemy
* Sint Maarten
* British Virgin Islands
* U.S. Virgin Islands
* Puerto Rico
* Vieques
* Culebra
A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.
Interests elsewhere in the northeastern Caribbean should
monitor the progress of Ernesto.
For storm information specific to your area in the United
States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please
monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service
forecast office. For storm information specific to your area
outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by
your national meteorological service.
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Ernesto was
located near latitude 16.0 North, longitude 57.5 West. Ernesto is
moving toward the west-northwest near 28 mph (44 km/h). A westward
to west-northwestward motion with some decrease in forward speed is
expected during the next couple of days. On the forecast track,
Ernesto is expected to move across portions of the Leeward Islands
late tonight or Tuesday and near or over the U.S. and British
Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico by Tuesday evening. Ernesto is then
forecast to turn northward over the western Atlantic.
Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 40 mph (65 km/h)
with higher gusts. Gradual strengthening is expected during the
next few days.
Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km)
from the center.
The estimated minimum central pressure is 1009 mb (29.80 inches).
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Ernesto can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5 and WMO header WTNT45 KNHC
and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT5.shtml.
RAINFALL: Tropical Storm Ernesto is expected to produce total rain
accumulations of 4 to 6 inches over portions of the Leeward and
Virgin Islands. For Puerto Rico, 3 to 6 inches of rainfall, with
maximum amounts of 10 inches, is expected.
For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with
Tropical Storm Ernesto, please see the National Weather Service
Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_at5.shtml?rainqpf
Elsewhere in the Caribbean, Tropical Storm Ernesto is expected to
produce the following rain accumulations through Friday morning:
Windward Islands… 1 to 4 inches
Eastern Hispaniola… 2 to 4 inches
WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected in the warning area
for the Leeward Islands beginning late tonight or early Tuesday.
Tropical storm conditions are expected to begin spreading over the
Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico by Tuesday evening.
STORM SURGE: A storm surge will raise water levels by as much as 1
to 3 feet above ground level for the eastern coast of Puerto Rico
from San Juan to Guayama, including the islands of Culebra and
Vieques and in the U.S. Virgin Islands, including St. Thomas, St.
John, and St. Croix.
A storm surge will raise water levels by as much as 1 to 3 feet
above normal tide levels in the British Virgin Islands. Near the
coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves.
SURF: Swells generated by Ernesto will likely begin to affect
portions of the Leeward Islands beginning late tonight. These
swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current
conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.
Disturbance Now Tropical Storm Ernesto
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