…TROPICAL DISTURBANCE IS AFFECTING THE AREA…
THE ANTIGUA AND BARBUDA METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE CONTINUES TO FOLLOW THE PROGRESS OF A TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ACTIVELY. THE SYSTEM IS PASSING OVER THE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN, INCLUDING THE LEEWARD ISLANDS AND THE BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS
AS AN ACTIVE TROPICAL WAVE. IT WILL EXIT THE AREA LATE Wednesday, THURSDAY. THE DISTURBANCE, WHICH COULD BECOME AL97, IS NOT EXPECTED TO BECOME A TROPICAL CYCLONE (TROPICAL DEPRESSION, TROPICAL STORM OR HURRICANE) BEFORE EXITING THE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN.
HENCE, THE SYSTEM POSES LITTLE TO NO THREAT TO THE LEEWARD
ISLANDS AND THE BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS. THE RISK OF WIND, RAINFALL OR SEAS IS VERY LOW OR LOW, SO NO ACTION IS REQUIRED.
AT 8 AM ECT OR 1200 UTC, A TROPICAL DISTURBANCE WAS CENTRED OVER ANTIGUA MOVING WEST-NORTHWEST AT AROUND 12 MPH.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE LESS THAN 25 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS, MAINLY OVER WATER TO THE NORTH OF THE ISLANDS. STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST AFTER THE SYSTEM PASSES THE AREA. THERE IS A NEAR-ZERO PERCENT CHANCE OF FORMATION IN 48 HOURS AND A 60 PERCENT CHANCE OF FORMATION IN SEVEN DAYS.
BASED ON THE LATEST INFORMATION, EXCEPT FOR LIGHTNING, NO OTHER HAZARD FROM THIS SYSTEM IS ANTICIPATED; HOWEVER, SOME MORE HEAVY RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TODAY AND PARTS OF THURSDAY BUT ACCUMULATIONS WILL, AT MOST, RESULT IN MINIMAL OR MINOR FLOODING. RAINFALL TOTAL OF UP TO 75 MM OR 3 INCHES HAS ALREADY OCCURRED IN THE LAST 12 HOURS ACROSS SMALL PARTS OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS AND A FURTHER 25 TO 50 MM
OR 1 TO 2 INCHES IS POSSIBLE WITH SIMILAR TOTALS SPREADING ACROSS THE BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS.
PLEASE NOTE THAT NO ALERTS, WATCHES OR WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT FOR THE AREA AND NONE IS REQUIRED, AT THIS TIME.
RESIDENTS SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE DISTURBANCE AND ENSURE THEIR HURRICANESEASON PLANS ARE PREPARED.
THE NEXT UPDATE WILL BE AROUND 8 AM TOMORROW, OR SOONER IF REQUIRED.
FORECASTER DALE DESTIN
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