BULLETIN Tropical Storm Bret Advisory Number 12 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL032023 500 AM AST Thu Jun 22 2023 ...BRET POISED TO BRING STRONG WINDS AND HEAVY RAINS TO PORTIONS OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT... SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...13.7N 56.6W ABOUT 200 MI...320 KM E OF BARBADOS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...996 MB...29.42 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * St. Lucia A Tropical Storm Warning in in effect for... * Dominica * St. Lucia * Martinique A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Barbados * St. Vincent and the Grenadines A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area, in this case within the next 24 hours. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within 24 hours. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, in this case within the next 24 hours. Interests elsewhere in the Lesser Antilles should monitor the progress of Bret. Additional watches or warnings may be required later today. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Bret was located near latitude 13.7 North, longitude 56.6 West. Bret is moving toward the west near 15 mph (24 km/h), and this general motion with an increase in forward speed is expected during the next few days. On the forecast track, the center of Bret is expected to approach the Lesser Antilles today, move across the Lesser Antilles this evening and tonight, and then move westward across the eastern and central Caribbean Sea Friday and Saturday. Maximum sustained winds are near 70 mph (110 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is forecast today while Bret approaches the Lesser Antilles. Weakening is anticipated to begin tonight or Friday after Bret passes the Lesser Antilles, and the system is likely to dissipate over the central Caribbean Sea by Saturday night. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km) from the center, especially to the north. The estimated minimum central pressure is 996 mb (29.42 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Bret can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3, WMO header WTNT43 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT3.shtml WIND: Hurricane conditions are possible in the hurricane watch area this evening or tonight. Tropical storm conditions are expected within the tropical storm warning areas and possible within the watch areas later today and tonight. RAINFALL: Storm total rainfall amounts of 3 to 6 inches with maximum amounts of 10 inches are possible across portions of the Lesser Antilles from Guadeloupe south to St. Vincent and the Grenadines, including Barbados. The heavy rainfall could lead to flash flooding, especially across areas of higher terrain. Urban flooding is also possible. SURF: Swells generated by Bret are expected to begin affecting portions of the Lesser Antilles today. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 800 AM AST. Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST.