JERRY NEAR HURRICANE STRENGTH

SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST…0900 UTC…INFORMATION

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LOCATION…16.0N 53.2W

ABOUT 575 MI…925 KM E OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…70 MPH…110 KM/H

PRESENT MOVEMENT…WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 16 MPH…26 KM/H

MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…995 MB…29.39 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS

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CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for…

* Barbuda

* Anguilla

* St. Maarten

* St. Martin

* St. Barthelemy

* Saba and St. Eustatius

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are

possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Interests elsewhere in the northern Leeward Islands should monitor

the progress of Jerry.  Additional watches could be issued later

today.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor

products issued by your national meteorological service.

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK

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At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Jerry was

located near latitude 16.0 North, longitude 53.2 West.  Jerry is

moving toward the west-northwest near 16 mph (26 km/h).  A west-

northwest motion at a slightly faster forward speed is expected over

the next few days.  On the forecast track, the center of Jerry will

be near or north of the northern Leeward Islands Friday and pass

north of Puerto Rico on Saturday.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 70 mph (110 km/h)

with higher gusts.  Jerry is forecast to become a hurricane later

today, with little change in strength anticipated on Friday or

Saturday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km)

from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 995 mb (29.39 inches).

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND

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Key messages for Jerry can be found in the Tropical Cyclone

Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5 and WMO header WTNT45 KNHC

and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT5.shtml.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch

areas by early Friday.

RAINFALL: Jerry is expected to produce total rainfall accumulations

of 1 to 2 inches with maximum amounts of 3 inches across the

northern Leeward Islands, the Virgin Islands, and Puerto Rico.

SURF: Swells generated by Jerry are forecast to affect portions

of the northern Leeward Islands by later today.  These swells are

likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.

Please consult products from your local weather office.

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